By Mukurima X Muriuki
I was crunching numbers today to see if the newly registered voters will make any difference in the 2017 general poll. I have noted the following:
1. Without incorporating numbers for Lamu and Kericho, approximately 1,428,000 have been added to the voters roll.
2. In 2013, president Uhuru Kenyatta beat Raila Odinga by margin of about 755K votes (give or take).
3. Uhuru Kenyatta won in 2013, not by the tyranny of numbers, but through an excited base that flocked the voting stations. On average, the counties that the president won had an average 90% turn out.
4. Raila Odinga’s loss in 2013 was hugely due to a voter turn out in his strongholds. This could only mean a poor GOTV operation. The average voter turn out in counties that Raila won was 83%
5. Assuming that all voters remain standpatters, and that the existing coalitions remain, so much so that the %’s from 2013 hold, the current voter registration exercise has given Raila a net gain of 103,000 votes.
6. Again, assuming standpatter voters, Uhuru Kenyatta will win the 2017 election. However,
7. The net gain for Raila Odinga in the just-concluded voter registration means that Uhuru will not win in the first round. He will get 49.5% against Raila’s 44.7%.
8. The above means a run-off.
9. The only way Raila can win is play by Uhuru’s game plan-get an average of 90% turn out in counties where he won in 2013. However,
10. The above victory would mean that those who voted for Uhuru are not motivated to go to polls in 2017, and that the turn out in areas that Uhuru won in 2013 averages to 83% (same as Raila’s in 2013). However,
11. If this happens (Raila’s 90% average voter turn out and Uhuru’s 83% voter turn out), the country would still see a run off as Raila’s margin of victory would be 9,000 votes! Can the country handle such a margin?
12. A Kalonzo entry into Jubilee would mean no need for the country to hold elections. Uhuru should just continue ruling. We can use the money meant for the election to buy equipment for hospitals.
13. What if Raila taps Mukhisa Kituyi to run for president and Kalonzo Musyoka as his deputy and then Raila goes for Leader of Majority?
14. If you want to challenge the numbers that I have put out here, please share the numbers that you have. Make a case using numbers-numbers don’t lie!
15. The above assumes NO rigging!